Regional Australia will be the big loser in Canberra’s visa lottery

Let me paint you a simple picture. Barron Valley Hotel sits in Atherton in Far North Queensland, at the heart of one of Australia’s most productive horticultural regions.

Avocados, mangoes, citrus and coffee are grown across the Tablelands. It’s one of the nation’s natural food baskets.

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Throughout the year, the Barron Valley Hotel is home base for around 80 working backpackers. Some work in the pub and local cafes. Most work on surrounding farms picking the fruit and vegetables that feed our nation.

Why are they there? How did young people from countries such as Germany, Chile and Ireland end up on this vast tableland in remote Queensland?

In large part because Australia’s Working Holiday Maker program gives young travellers a powerful incentive to head to remote and regional Australia. Where they are needed.

Under the existing system, Working Holiday Makers seeking a second year generally need to complete 88 days of remote or regional work.

Those seeking a third year need a further six months. Work where Australia needs you, in the regions basically, and earn the opportunity to stay another year. Everyone wins.

These much-needed workers aren’t the people clogging up city schools and hospitals. But now, just to chase a politically palatable migration number, the Federal Government is going to cut one of Australia’s most mobile workforces—without even tabling an economic impact analysis.

Under changes announced by Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke, second- and third-year Working Holiday Maker visas will be subject to a lottery.

The government says there will be 45,000 second-year places and just 5000 third-year places. That’s right—5000. That compares with 57,000 Working Holiday Makers who qualified for a second-year last year and 31,000 for a third. You do the maths.

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The proposed caps represent 38,000 fewer second- and third-year places in regional and remote communities already struggling to find local workers.

But the effect could extend well beyond those visas. Look at the decision facing a 25-year-old backpacker in Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane. Why relocate hundreds or thousands of kilometres and commit to months of specified work if it no longer provides certainty of another year in Australia?

Some will still go. Many won’t. I wouldn’t mind betting most will think it just isn’t worth it.

Regional Australia risks a double hit: fewer second- and third-year visa holders, and fewer first-year Working Holiday Makers heading to the regions.

That matters. Working Holiday Makers are young and mobile. They work, travel and spend their wages in Australia, providing labour where local workers cannot be found.

The third-year change is particularly significant: from 31,000 people qualifying last year to only 5000 places—an 84 percent reduction.

For northern and remote Australia in particular, the consequences deserve attention. Tourism, hospitality and farming businesses in northern Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Far North Queensland rely on mobile workers during peak seasons.

Working Holiday Makers keep hotels, pubs, roadhouses and cafes operating, crops picked and tours running.

If someone considering six months of hard work in the Kimberley knows it gives them only a one-in-six chance of a third-year visa, they will probably think twice before going where we need them.

The government has legitimate reasons for seeking to reduce net overseas migration. Population growth and pressure on housing and infrastructure are issues governments must manage. But the question is not simply the overall number. It is also the composition of migration and whether changes cut workers from where they are most needed.

There are practical ways to address that while maintaining the government’s overall migration objective.

First, transitional arrangements should protect people who have already commenced or completed qualifying regional work. Changing the rules without notice or consultation means Australia breaking a promise to the young workers and a broken promise to the businesses and communities who thought they could rely on the program.

Second, the lottery should reflect regional workforce needs. Places should be ring-fenced for regions experiencing genuine workforce shortages.

The government should publish applicant numbers, available places and the odds, so people understand their prospects before committing months to regional work.

Those completing extended regional work should receive either a guaranteed pathway within the overall cap or materially better prospects in the lottery.

In other words, do the right thing by Australia and we will do the right thing by you.

Third, when the government announced revised skilled visa processing priorities, construction, agriculture, fisheries, resources and teaching received priority. Tourism and hospitality did not.

Hotels and hospitality businesses are expanding apprenticeships and traineeships and investing in Australian workers. That is the long-term solution. Not migration.

But building a domestic workforce takes time and government support.

In the meantime, Working Holiday Makers provide a vital, flexible workforce in regional Australia, moving where workers are needed most.

Places such as the Atherton Tablelands, where they make all the difference.

Everyone can be a winner.