Tourism crisis! Stats reveal stark realities of a once vibrant industry
Gloomy statistics are coming from left right and centre about our once strong and expanding tourism industry. Pre-Covid-19 international tourism brought $45bn to our economy each year is now almost non-existent, and once thriving accommodations have either closed altogether or bookings are vastly reduced.
The International visitor results released for March by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, confirm that the tourism export industry is in severe crisis having dropped by more than 60 percent on the same month in 2019.
ATEC Managing Director Peter Shelley referring to the industry as a pale imitation of its great past, said : “Just as we began to rebuild from the rubble of January’s bushfires which saw mass cancellations from both domestic and international visitors, tourism businesses across the country were the first to be hit by the coronavirus, which has bought our inbound industry to a complete halt.
“We now work towards the opportunity of reopening some businesses to welcome domestic visitors on a phased timetable which will vary across the states. While this is a positive, many tourism and hospitality businesses will choose to remain in hibernation simply because essential social distancing requirements make it commercially impossible to open the doors.
The reality is it will be 2021 before we see any sign of international visitors back on our shores and inbound tourism will be one of the last sectors of our economy to make it to the ‘other side’, sadly with many tourism businesses and thousands of staff lost on the journey.
“The only bright light in the horizon for tourism businesses targeting the international visitor is the possibility of travel across the Tasman and our industry welcomes this opportunity with open arms.
“These businesses are desperately hoping we can welcome New Zealand visitors before the end of the Job Keeper program in September, otherwise the many businesses who are desperately trying to survive will not be there to help rebuild the industry in the future.
“For the thousands of people have committed a lifetime to establish successful businesses working in the international tourism sector, the opportunity to welcome their first overseas visitors remains a distant thought, as our borders are expected to remain closed for many months.
“While there is a lot to look forward to as the dark days of the COVID fog lifts, we all hope the recovery will be quick and that governments across the country work in partnership with the industry to build back a better tourism industry which will thrive into the future.”
The 2020 Dransfield Australian Hotel Market Futures – COVID-19 Update Series, has prepared their yearly forecasts but have adopted a different approach for 2020 considering the unique circumstances. Part 1 of the staggered reviews provide sobering reading and begin with a snapshot of the potential outlook for just Melbourne and Sydney Markets with other cities to follow.
Observations from the review state “both Sydney and Melbourne look set for significant RevPAR destruction of over 30 percent in the next few years”.
“Over the longer term to FY2027, both cities fall short of a full recovery. Whilst both cities share similar features, Sydney’s earlier position in the supply development lifecycle provides it with a greater opportunity to recalibrate to the lower demand environment as compared to Melbourne. There is more potential in Sydney for proposals to be delayed or cancelled and less market response is likely to materialise.”
More positive results come from Colliers International inaugural Australian Hotel Investor Sentiment survey, conducted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and show that investors expect signs of recovery for the hotel sector in early 2021.
According to the data, investors have identified Canberra, Brisbane and Gold Coast as markets best placed to lead the recovery, with all having a high domestic visitor component which should stand them in good stead.
Investors expect Q3 2020 to be the weakest quarter for hotel trading in Australia and many investors expect it to take between 18 months and 2 years before the Australian hotel investment market reaches stabilisation.
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