Global instability is shifting travel intent: What it means for Australia & New Zealand
Mabrian’s data insights: Recent U.S. administration decisions have created uncertainty, that might affect global travel demand
Geopolitical instability and shifting international policies are shaking up global travel trends—and the U.S. is one of the first major destinations to feel the impact.
As international travel intent towards the U.S. dips, new data suggests global uncertainty is reshaping how—and where—people plan their holidays. But could this turbulence actually spell opportunity for Australia and New Zealand?
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A fresh analysis from global travel intelligence platform Mabrian, in partnership with The Data Appeal Company, shows that travel inspiration for the U.S. is softening—especially in the wake of new policy announcements and geopolitical tensions.
Using its Share of Searches Index, Mabrian examined flight search trends from ten of the U.S.’s largest source markets—including the UK, Germany, Canada, Brazil, India, China, and South Korea—over the first quarter of 2025.
The results? Volatility is up, confidence is down, and travellers are hesitating.
Travel uncertainty takes hold
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Europe falters: Search interest from Germany, France, and Italy has dropped since January. New tariffs and post-inauguration sentiment appear to be key drivers.
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Canada & Brazil stall: Demand from the Americas shows signs of weakening, with fewer bookings converting from intent.
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Asia shows promise: China and South Korea have recorded consistent increases in travel searches and confirmed bookings. India and Mexico also show positive momentum.
Importantly, travellers are shifting toward shorter planning windows and last-minute bookings, reflecting hesitation in committing to long-haul travel too far in advance.
“While travel demand is always capable of being resilient, sudden policy shifts or added difficulties to visit the country project a less-friendly image of the United States as a destination, which might influence travel intent in the short and medium term,” said Carlos Cendra, Partner and Marketing and Communications Director at Mabrian.
🇦🇺🇳🇿: What’s the relevance Down Under?
While this study zeroes in on the U.S., its ripple effects—and the underlying behaviours—have clear implications for the Australasian region:
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Opportunity in Asia: With travel interest rising from China, South Korea, and India—markets that traditionally contribute heavily to Australia and New Zealand’s inbound tourism—there’s real potential for local operators to capitalise.
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Market volatility is a wake-up call: If global travellers are rethinking the U.S., they may also be considering alternative destinations. Australia and New Zealand, often viewed as stable, clean, and safe, are well-positioned to absorb redirected demand.
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Shorter booking cycles: Operators should prepare for reduced lead times and pivot toward flexible, last-minute-friendly booking policies.
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Trans-Tasman collaboration: Destinations across both countries could benefit from working together on campaigns targeting disillusioned long-haul travellers seeking safety, value, and nature-based experiences.
AccomNews Takeaway:
When traveller confidence wavers globally, destinations that project a friendly, stable image can benefit—if they’re ready to respond quickly.
Now is the time for accommodation providers in Australia and New Zealand to pay attention. Watch emerging source market behaviour, adapt to last-minute travel trends, and position your property or region as the smarter, safer alternative for long-haul travellers who may be looking beyond the U.S.
Mabrian and The Data Appeal Company will continue to monitor global trends as the summer season nears, particularly the impact of new policy measures and geopolitical developments on both short- and long-term travel decisions.
AccomNews is not affiliated with any government agency, body or political party. We are an independently owned, family-operated magazine.