The Crystal Ball Revisited – The Year of the Dragon
In Sung Dynasty (lasting from AD906-1279) the celestial Dragon symbolises success and happiness.
The dragon however is described as having a head of an ox, muzzle of a donkey, eyes of a shrimp, horns of a deer, body of a serpent covered with fish scales and the feet of a phoenix. The dragon clutches a pearl symbolising its super natural powers, dragons are said to move like lightning and whirlwinds, generally accompanied by thunder and rain. Totally powerful, yet unpredictable. Could this be a general description of the building manager and their respective committees?
Good luck is always associated with this Chinese sign of the Zodiac. Dragons do everything on a grand scale, big ideas and extreme ambitions. Again sounds like the day-to-day runnings of a manager and committee. This behaviour, it is recorded, is not for show and results in inevitable success. If all managers and committees are covered under the year of the dragon life will be full of solidarity and close bonds will be formed.
All that have followed the ‘Crystal Ball’ since it came into my hands in 2007 will see that it has a nearly perfect record with its industry predictions.
Regardless of your star sign or beliefs, magic wands, lucky beads, rabbits feet etc, nothing beats belief in what you do and the underlying confidence in your ability to move forward regardless of the circumstances. The industry stood tall and proud in 2011, close cooperation generally being the case between managers and their respective committees. This in turn resulted in generally harmonious strata schemes be it owner occupiers, lockups or investors.
As the smoky mist slowly clears within the confines of this amazing ‘Crystal Ball’, revealed is what may happen in the management rights industry in 2012. Holiday buildings are showing increased occupancy in the less remote areas. Permanent complexes of high net profit sell immediately if priced correctly and corporate management rights are rarely available. Banks’ fiscal policy regarding lending is encouraging. Vendors have relished that today’s market is just that “now” forget the past and sell in the current market?
Valuers are more or less committed to more research and treat each valuation as a standalone rather than dwell on historic past values. Potential purchasers have now adjusted to the current market and have returned in large numbers looking for the next episode of their life.
I look at actual occurring sales and contracts of sale for the first part of ‘the year of the dragon’, contracts from all reports and certainly from my side of the industry are forthcoming, management rights inspections are on a daily basis normally resulting in negotiated sales. The commencement of 2012 has actively begun with a mini boom and reflects the days of old.
The current economy waits in anticipation for the impending doom of Europe and anticipated slow down in China. Meanwhile the commercially adjusted buyers and sellers move forward, the management rights industry remains as strong as ever, the so called prophets of doom move on or retire. I become a more confident dragon and the magical ‘Crystal Ball’ continually amazes all.
Jake Clarke
MRSales
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